Rising Rates, A Boon for Moderate Growth Markets

RISING-RATES.-A-BOON-FOR-ASSETS-IN-MODERATE-GROWTH-MARKETS-v4.1

This commentary and the information contained herein are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or related financial instruments. This article may contain forward-looking statements. Readers should refer to information contained on our website at https://avenuelivingam.wpenginepowered.com/forward-looking-statements for additional information regarding forward-looking statements and certain risks associated with them. 

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Avenue Living Surpasses $4.25 Billion in Assets Under Management

Calgary, Alberta, October 18, 2022 – Avenue Living announced today it has exceeded $4.25 billion in assets under management (AUM).  

Following a series of key acquisitions in its multi-family residential, self-storage, and agricultural funds, Avenue Living reported this significant milestone, representing a 4X increase to its AUM since 2018. Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta and Dallas, Texas, the organization has grown to over 900 employees in seven provinces and 13 states, with additional plans for growth on both sides of the border.   

“Our business philosophy of ‘investing in the everyday’ means that we see potential in properties and markets that others often overlook,” says Anthony Giuffre, founder and CEO of Avenue Living. “We have built a scalable, defensible model that continues to perform through varying market cycles, and we have effectively institutionalized low-density property management by developing an infrastructure that is sustainable and repeatable.”  

Starting in 2006 with its first acquisition of a 24-unit property in Brooks, Alberta, the journey to becoming one of Canada’s largest property owners in both the multi-family rental residential and self-storage sectors has resulted from a clear, strategic focus on the North American Heartland. The organization has a well-researched understanding of the unique demographic profile, dubbed ‘workforce housing’, which it defines as a subset of the economy earning between $15 and $50 per hour.   

Jason Jogia, chief investment officer at Avenue Living states, “The days of passive income through property ownership are ending. In the largely unconsolidated markets we enter, legacy owners are looking for succession plans for their properties and businesses.” Jogia asserts that, “We find and acquire properties that are underperforming, and invest in strategic operational, capital, and technological enhancements to bring these properties up to the Avenue Living standard. These improvements not only enrich the customer experience but improve the operating performance of the property. Our growth is measured, conservative, and deliberate across the geographies we target; and the assets we choose have proven to be defensible through times of volatility.” 

Avenue Living is the second largest building operator in Canada by roofline and has 10 per cent of their residential multi-family portfolio in the United States. The organization’s self-storage fund, Mini Mall Storage Properties, has grown exponentially in just over two years with over 4.6 million square feet of storage space and 56 per cent of its facilities in the U.S.. In addition, Avenue Living Agricultural Land Trust steadily grew across the Canadian Prairies, with 82,900 acres under ownership and leased as active farmland.  

The organization’s focus away from ‘shiny objects’ has historically insulated the portfolio from the high highs and the low lows seen in high-growth markets. “Our growth is intentional; it creates economies of scale and scope, which continuously enhances our operational excellence,” says Gabriel Millard, senior vice president of capital markets. “We focus on markets that have historically exhibited low to moderate growth, where we use our expertise to manufacture alpha. As we see a resurgence across the North American Heartland, we are well positioned to continue capturing the upside of this economic trend.”  

ABOUT AVENUE LIVING   

Founded on the principle of investing in the everyday, Avenue Living focuses on opportunities that are often overlooked by others, having grown to $4.25 billion CAD in aggregate assets under management across four private real estate investment mandates. The Avenue Living team includes over 900 professionals with expertise in real estate operations and transactions, property management, research, investment origination, and capital markets, as well as a suite of subject matter experts to support Avenue Living’s growing portfolio of multi-family residential, commercial, agricultural land, and self-storage assets. In addition to 15,000 multi-family units located in Canada and the United States, Avenue Living and its related entities own over 496,500 square feet of commercial space, 82,900+ acres of productive farmland, and more than 4.6 million square feet of self-storage space.   

All financial figures are in Canadian dollars. 

This commentary and the information contained herein are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or related financial instruments. This article may contain forward-looking statements. Readers should refer to information contained on our website at www.alamstg.wpenginepowered.com for additional information regarding forward-looking statements and certain risks associated with them.   

Avenue Living Reaches 15,000 Multi-Family Units Under Management

Calgary, AB, Oct. 13, 2022 — All financial figures are in U.S. dollars

Calgary-based Avenue Living is pleased to announce that following the recent acquisition of a 386-unit property worth $52 million in Columbus, Georgia, it has reached a milestone of 15,000 multi-family homes under ownership in 23 regions across North America.

The purchase reinforces Avenue Living’s 16-year, proven consolidation strategy, which focuses on low-to-medium density workforce housing located in key markets. The company continues to target moderate growth markets that exhibit a diversified economic base and low institutional penetration.

“Since entering the multi-family space in 2006, we’ve focused on creating an operating model that puts the residents’ needs first,” says Anthony Giuffre, Founder and Chief Executive Officer at Avenue Living. “Our experience has shown that these needs transcend geographies, which presents opportunities to expand our defensible model across key locations in Canada and the United States.”

Avenue Living has a track record of immediately adding value to buildings and improving resident satisfaction. “We proactively implement service and technology improvements, like security, prop-tech, fin-tech, and capex investments,” says Giuffre. “Through our innovative solutions and operations-first approach, we have bolstered our reputation and investor confidence. Word-of-mouth referrals have increased, and our Net Promoter Score has risen consistently — a strong hallmark in the rental industry because it represents 365 days of good service, not one simple transaction.”

Avenue Living continues to see strong tailwinds in the workforce housing rental market and capitalizes on these conditions by consistently delivering best-in-class customer service to its residents — maintaining 97.5% occupancy across all units in North America and higher than average retention rates. This established service framework, through a vertically integrated operating platform, allows Avenue Living to deliver a consistent experience across new markets and support its expansion strategy.

“We use a rigorous research and analysis process to select each and every one of our multi-family properties,” says Jason Jogia, Chief Investment Officer at Avenue Living. “We understand local market conditions, industry and employment opportunities in the region, level of demand, and of course the potential of each property we acquire.”

As one of the largest consolidators of workforce housing across North America, Avenue Living’s latest milestone of 15,000 multi-family units puts the company into an upper tier within the Canadian real estate industry. Since the start of 2021, the organization has grown its unit count by 46%, acquiring over 4,800 multi-family units.

ABOUT AVENUE LIVING

Founded on the principle of investing in the everyday, Avenue Living focuses on opportunities that are often overlooked by others, having grown to $4.1 billion CAD in aggregate assets under management across four private real estate investment mandates. The Avenue Living team includes over 900 professionals with expertise in real estate operations and transactions, property management, research, investment origination, and capital markets, as well as a suite of subject matter experts to support Avenue Living’s growing portfolio of multi-family residential, commercial, agricultural land, and self-storage assets. In addition to 15,000 multi-family units located in Canada and the United States, Avenue Living and its related entities own over 496,500 square feet of commercial space, 82,900+ acres of productive farmland, and more than 4.6 million square feet of self-storage space.

This commentary and the information contained herein are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or related financial instruments. This article may contain forward-looking statements. Readers should refer to information contained on our website at www.alamstg.wpenginepowered.com for additional information regarding forward-looking statements and certain risks associated with them. 

Inside Innovation: Private REIT Taps the CIB for Multi-Unit Energy Retrofit Financing

The call has gone out from all levels of government for more affordable homes across Canada. However, solutions to the country’s housing needs must simultaneously address carbons and GHGs.

Rather than simply building new or tearing down and rebuilding some resolution can also be found by taking another look at existing buildings, particularly low and mid-density multi-family structures. Through major financing offered by Crown Corporation, the Canada Investment Bank (CIB), a privately-held Canadian REIT is tackling both the housing and emission issues head-on. Learn how Avenue Living is helping address the housing shortage, sustainably.

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Manufacturing Alpha: Avenue Living’s Three-Factor Formula for Success

Our CIO, Jason Jogia, joined @Wealth Professional to discuss the strategy that sets Avenue Living apart, allowing us to thrive regardless of market conditions.

“We’ve always had to manufacture alpha by out-operating our peers,” says Jason. “By being able to operate effectively, we’ve been able to create a defensible multi-family portfolio.” 

Our approach is built on three key drivers: strategic diversification, customer focus, and operational integration. Read more about these foundational elements and how they have allowed us to build a successful business model.  

 

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Interest Rates & Multi-Family Residential Real Estate

Authors

Grant Alexander Wilson, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Faculty of Business Administration, University of Regina

Jason Jogia, MBA, M.Fin., Chief Investment Officer, Avenue Living

Author Bios

Dr. Wilson is an Assistant Professor at the Hill and Levene School of Business, University of Regina. His research focuses on marketing, strategy, and innovation. He has published over 20 peer-reviewed articles in top management journals including Journal of Small Business Management, Research-Technology Management, and Journal of Business Strategy. His research has been featured in the National Post and by the World Economic Forum. Dr. Wilson is also a research consultant and contributor to Avenue Living Asset Management.

Mr. Jogia is the Chief Investment Officer at Avenue Living and has over 15 years of experience in real estate capital markets, originating over $10 billion in real estate loans and $1 billion in equity. He has extensive experience in real estate investment analysis and capital structure across various real estate classes. In addition to holding 2 Masters’ degrees in Finance, Mr. Jogia is pursuing his Doctorate of Business Administration and currently serves as an instructor at the University of Calgary, specializing in real estate finance.

INTRODUCTION 

The global pandemic caused the Government of Canada to have an “all hands on deck” approach to its intervention in the free market economy. Specifically, the Government of Canada enacted both expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. Fiscal policy “consists of changing government expenditure and/or taxes” (Lumsden, 2011). In contrast, monetary policy “consists of changing the money supply or interest rates” (Lumsden, 2011). The pandemic stimulus package (government expenditure) was the largest on record (Wilson, 2021), equating to 11.2% of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP), 420% larger than the 2008 recession (McKinsey, 2020). Other fiscal policies to expand the economy included a number of new tax exemptions and deferrals for both individuals and businesses (Government of Canada, 2021). In the early weeks of the pandemic, interest rates were reduced (expansionary monetary policy) to record-breaking lows (e.g., 0.25%) (Bank of Canada, 2022a; Foran, 2020). According to the Bank of Canada (2022a), “lowering interest rates [was] the Bank’s best-known tool to encourage borrowing to stimulate the economy.” Simply, in times of low interest rates such as the pandemic, economic actors are more likely to borrow money and make large purchases, increasing the overall demand for money (Investopedia, 2021).    

Figure 1 illustrates how the lowering of interest rate (I1 to I2) results in a movement along the money demand curve (MD). In order to establish equilibrium between the money demanded (MD) and supplied (MS), the money supply needs to increase (MS1 to MS2).  

FIGURE 1 – INTEREST RA TE, MONEY DEMAND, & MONEY SUPPLY 

INTEREST RATES & MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

An effect of increasing the money supply too quickly is inflation (Ross, 2021; Lumsden, 2011). While “the natural tendency of the state is inflation” (Rothbard, 1962), Canada is currently experiencing above-average inflation (> 2%) (Trading Economics, 2022; Wilson, 2021; Wilson, 2022). Specifically, in June of 2022, Canada’s annual inflation rate was 8.1%, the highest since 1983 and well above forecasted figures (CNBC, 2022; Trading Economics, 2022) (Figure 2). 

FIGURE 2 – INFLATION IN CANADA

INTEREST RATES & MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

Trading Economics (2022) 

In response, the Government of Canada has committed to a series of interest rate increases (contractionary monetary policy) to “forcefully” curb inflation (Bank of Canada, 2022b). This paper explores the macroeconomic implications of interest rate increases. Specifically, the relationships between interest rates and the stock market, home values, and residential rents are examined.  

INTEREST RATES & THE STOCK MARKET 

According to Hall (2022), changes to the interest rate “impacts both the economy and stock markets because borrowing becomes either more or less expensive for individuals and businesses.” Interest rate increases, such as those occurring now and in the foreseeable future, “negatively affect earnings and stock prices” (Hall, 2022). An examination of the TSX Composite Index (benchmark measure of the Canadian stock market) and historical variable mortgage interest rates (a measure of real-time consumer interest rate changes) exemplifies this inverse relationship (Figure 3).  

FIGURE 3 – TSX & VARIABLE MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES 

Stock Performance (2022) & Super Brokers (2022) 

Given the inverse relationship between the stock market and interest rates, recent and committed rate hikes have investors concerned, anticipating a recession, and seeking alternative investments. Real estate positions have been characterized as alternative investments that possess inflation-hedging benefits (Hartzell et al., 1987; Hoesli, 1994; Lee & Lee, 2014; Nickerson, 2021; Rubens et al., 1989; Wilson, 2021; Wilson, 2022). However, not all real estate investments react similarly – as they do with inflation – to interest rate increases.  

INTEREST RATES & HOME VALUES 

Interest rates and home values are central to homeownership affordability. According to Nielsen (2022), “interest rates are important to the housing market for several reasons. They determine how much we will have to pay to borrow money to buy a property, and they influence the value of [homes].” Low interest rates increase the demand for homes and increase prices, whereas high interest rates decrease the demand for homes and lower prices. A comparison of Canada’s historical overnight rate and new house price index (a proxy for home values) from 1990 to 2022 illustrates this relationship. As interest rates decrease, the new home price index increases (Figure 4).  

FIGURE 4 – INTEREST RATES & HOME VALUES

Bank of Canada (2022) & Statistics Canada (2022)  

A regression analysis, using interest rate as the independent variable and the new house price index as the dependent variable, confirms that the two are negatively correlated (β =-.713, p < 0.001). This demonstrates that as Canadian interest rates decreased, home values increased. In contrast, as interest rates increase, home values are expected to decrease. Given their “strong” negative correlation (r > ±0.40) (Hair et al., 2000), future interest rate increases are likely to create lower demand for homeownership in Canada, resulting in a “flight to affordability” or renting.  

INTEREST RATES & RESIDENTIAL RENTS 

A demand curve is a graph that depicts the relationship between the price and quantity of a good or service (Lumsden, 2011). Moves along the demand curve show how the quantity demanded changes at every level of price (Lumsden, 2011). A shift of the demand curve occurs when a variable, not on the axes, changes (Lumsden, 2011). In real estate, increasing interest rates and lower demand for homeownership increases rental demand at all levels, shifting the entire demand curve up and to the right (DR1 to DR2) (Figure 5).   

FIGURE 5 – RENTAL DEMAND 

INTEREST RATES & MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

The shift is empirically validated. However, unlike the conceptual illustration, in reality, the shift is somewhat lagged. Comparing Canada’s variable mortgage interest rate with the inflation-adjusted rental price index (a proxy for multi–family residential rents) shows that as mortgage interest rates increase or decrease, residential rents experience lagged corresponding increases or decreases (Figure 6). Given that the rental price index is inflation-adjusted, it can be concluded that these changes are direct responses to rental demand fluctuations.   

FIGURE 6 – RENTAL PRICES & VARIABLE MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES 

INTEREST RATES & MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

Bank of Canada (2022c) & Statista (2022) 

It is evident that multi-family residential properties have distinct advantages in an increasing interest rate environment. As interest rates increase, more individuals are contemplating renting. At the same time, new multi-family construction slows down due to the cost of borrowing. The increased demand, but stagnant supply, puts upward pressure on residential rents. For savvy investors seeking to preserve and grow wealth, it may be strategic to include or expand multi-family residential real estate positions. Currently, wealth preservation is top of mind, as big banks and economists are forecasting an impending recession (Tepper, 2022; Ray, 2022).  

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) & RESIDENTIAL RENTS 

Gross domestic product (GDP) is a comprehensive assessment of a country’s economic health, as it measures its total domestic production. Increasing GDP, over two periods, is known as economic growth or a boom. In contrast, declining GDP over two consecutive quarters is defined as a recession. Comparing the annual changes of Canada’s GDP (booms and recessions) with changes to inflation-adjusted residential rents shows an inverse relationship (Figure 7).  

FIGURE 7 – RENTAL PRICES & GDP 

INTEREST RATES & MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

Statista (2022) & World Bank (2022) 

A regression analysis, using GDP as the independent variable and rental prices as the dependent variable, shows that the relationship is negative (β = -0.756) and statistically significant (p = 0.007). This suggests that in times of GDP decline, inflation-adjusted residential rents (real increases to rent) experience the largest growth, supporting multi-family residential real estate as a recession-proof investment. 

WHERE TO NEXT? 

The last two years have been anything but stable and predictable. As a result, individual and institutional investors have had – to say the least – a “bumpy ride.” Understanding that the Bank of Canada is increasing interest rates and will continue to engage in contractionary monetary policies to curb inflation, it is a precarious time for investors. Examining historical data that compares rising interest rates with the stock market and home values emphasizes the importance of alternative investments that perform well in times of rising interest rates, namely multi-family residential real estate. As the world economies face increasing interest rates and impending recessions, this real estate asset class offers significant advantages. 

REFERENCES 

Bank of Canada. (2022a). Our COVID-19 response: Policy actions. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/05/our-policy-actions-in-the-time-of-covid-19/  

Bank of Canada. (2022b). Economic progress report: Navigating a high inflation environment. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/06/economic-progress-report-navigating-a-high-inflation-environment/  

Bank of Canada. (2022c). Canadian interest rates and monetary policy variables: 10-year lookup. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-interest-rates/  

CNBC. (2022). Canada inflation rate gallops to near 40-year high, calls for supersized rate hike mount. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/22/canada-inflation-rises-to-near-40-year-high.html  

Foran, P. (2020). COVID-19 pandemic pushes Canadian interest rates to near historic lows. https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/covid-19-pandemic-pushes-canadian-interest-rates-to-near-historic-lows-1.4982314  

Government of Canada. (2021). Changes to taxes and benefits. https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/campaigns/covid-19-update.html  

Hair, J. F., Bush, R. P., & Ortinau, D. J. (2000). Marketing research: A practical approach for the new millennium. Irwin Professional Publishing. 

Hall, M. (2022). How do interest rates affect the stock market? https://www.investopedia.com/investing/how-interest-rates-affect-stock-market/  

Hartzell, D., Hekman, J. S., & Miles, M. E. (1987). Real estate returns and inflation. Real Estate Economics, 15(1), 617-637.  

Hoesli, M. (1994). Real estate as a hedge against inflation: Learning from the Swiss case. Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 12(3), 51-59. 

Investopedia. (2021). Monetary policy. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/monetarypolicy.asp  

Lee, C. L., & Lee, M. L. (2014). Do European real estate stocks hedge inflation? Evidence from developed and emerging markets. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 18(2), 178-197. 

Lumsden, K. G. (2011). Economics. Edinburgh Business School Heriot-Watt University. 

McKinsey & Company. (2020). Total stimulus for the COVID-19 crisis already triple that for the entire 2008–09 recession. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-leading-through-the-crisis/charting-the-path-to-the-next-normal/total-stimulus-for-the-covid-19-crisis-already-triple-that-for-the-entire-2008-09-recession#  

Nickerson, C. (2021). Multifamily withstands pandemic better than most property types.  https://renx.ca/multifamily-withstands-pandemic-better-most-property-types/  

Ray, S. (2022). Another major international bank forecasts recession in the U.S. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2022/06/20/another-major-international-bank-forecasts-recession-in-the-us/?sh=686292ff2f44  

Ross, S. (2021). How does money supply affect inflation? https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042015/how-does-money-supply-affect-inflation.asp  

Rothbard, M. N. (1962). The Case for a 100 Percent Gold Dollar. Libertarian Review Press. 94-136.  

Rubens, J., Bond, M., & Webb, J. (1989). The inflation-hedging effectiveness of real estate. Journal of Real Estate Research, 4(2), 45-55. 

Statista. (2022). Rental price index in Canada from 1st quarter 2001 to 3rd quarter 2021. https://www.statista.com/statistics/198862/consumer-price-index-of-rented-accommodation-in-canada-since-2001/  

Statistics Canada. (2022). New house price index. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810020501  

Stock Performance. (2022). S&P/TSX composite index (Canada) early returns. https://www.1stock1.com/1stock1_766.htm  

Super Brokers. (2022). Mortgage rate history: History of average variable vs 5 year mortgage rates. https://www.superbrokers.ca/tools/mortgage-rate-history  

Tepper, T. (2022). Is the U.S. headed for another recession? Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/is-a-recession-coming/  

Trading Economics. (2022). Canada inflation rate. https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi  

Wilson, G. A., Jogia, J (2021). Canadian real estate & farmland: A hedge against inflation. Avenue Living Asset Management. https://avenuelivingam.wpenginepowered.com/canadian-real-estate-farmland-a-hedge-against-inflation/  

Wilson, G. A., Jogia, J (2022). Re-examining a hedge against inflation: Multi-family residential real estate. Avenue Living Asset Management. https://avenuelivingam.wpenginepowered.com/white-paper-re-examining-a-hedge-against-inflation-multi-family-residential-real-estate/  

World Bank. (2022). GDP growth – Canada. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CA